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Pelf's Big Flop - NYM falls to PHI 10-7, 4/6/2011

Number one starter Mike Pelfrey struggled through his second start of the season and the Mets came just short of a comeback victory as the Phillies took Game 2 of the road series tonight in Philadelphia.  Pelfrey lasted only 2.0 innings and left with the bases loaded in the third, but Taylor Buchholz did his best to stop the bleeding and the Mets rallied in the fourth and fifth innings to tie the game at 7-7.  Blaine Boyer allowed three runs in relief of Buchholz and the Mets were unable to build a second rally, so Philly ties the series at 1-1 and the Mets head into the final game of the series tomorrow looking for a win against Roy Halladay.  Jon Niese will start for New York, and the offense will attempt to carry the grit and attitude that they displayed while down 7-0 tonight into a game where they will likely need to scratch and claw for one or two runs.

Pelfrey's second atrocious outing is an obvious cause for concern, especially when you consider the string of hits and runs that the Mets put together against Blanton.  Assuming a regular schedule and a consistent 1-5 rotation, the Mets may not face Blanton again this season (that's just the way that the schedules line up), so games where they can avoid dealing with Halladay and Lee have to turn into wins.  Hopefully, Niese can spin a gem tomorrow against Halladay, and the momentum will continue to build for the Mets as they head back to New York for their home opener.  Obviously, neither of tonight's starters deserve a fantasy pick, but fantasy players have to love the offensive onslaught.  Tomorrow, you probably won't see 28 hits and 17 runs.

Mets Invade Philly - NYM over PHI 7-1, 4/5/2011

On a night where the Mets had everything to gain against the supposedly infallible Phillies, New York rode into Philadelphia and took the first game of their second road series on the tall shoulders of 6'10" starter Chris Young.  One-time World Series MVP Cole Hamels was shelled for six runs and knocked out in the third inning, giving the Mets all but one of their runs in that frame, but the standout performance of the night was not what Young did with his pitches (though he did baffle the Phillies for 5.1 innings) but what he did with his bat.  Alongside a 4-for-5 night from David Wright, Young went 3-for-3 with a run and an RBI, and he became the first pitcher in Mets history to collect two hits in one inning.

Young and the bullpen looked great, and the lineup's ability to take advantage of Hamels's mistakes are a positive sign for this club at this early point in the season.  The big question is whether "ace" Mike Pelfrey will be able to handle the pressure against Joe Blanton on Wednesday night, but at least he won't face Roy Halladay in his second start.  With a few more wins of this caliber, the Mets can start to turn some heads in the media, but they have to try for a series win against Philly, and that campaign continues with Game 2 and another chance to silence Ryan Howard and the Phillies' staff of Cy Young favorites.

Interesting sidenote, courtesy of talk radio WFAN: with this loss, Hamels is 1-6 with a 4.84 ERA in eight starts since calling the Mets "choke artists" in December 2008.  As I argued in a prior post, the Mets can turn the perception of this team around with a hot start, and though tonight's game was somewhat uneventful and quiet after the big inning of offense and after Young worked out of a bases loaded jam in the fifth, the fact that the Mets were able to keep the comeback-prone Phillies off of the board speaks volumes about how effective they were.  Let's hope that Pelfrey can take a page from Chris Young's book - if not at the plate, then at least on the mound.

Boom Boom Pow! - DET beats NYY 10-7, 4/3/2011

Well, you can't win 'em all! In summary, the Yanks suffered their first loss of the season despite another offensive outburst. Hughes and subsequently Colon pitched poorly, giving up 4+ runs a piece; the Tigers' Max Scherzer was really no better, so neither starter deserved a pick in my book.

In terms of offense, the Yankees were clicking on all cylinders (particularly Posada), but the Tigers went one step further. They had a torrid 0.359 BA during the game and capitalized on scoring opportunities as reflected by a relatively high RBI/Left on Base ratio despite a similar # of total bases by the Yanks. Miguel Cabrera was ripping balls out of the park as fast as he took down [generic liquor] shots before his DUI; the Tigers rookie Brennan Boesch was just as effective at the plate.

On a final note, I only knew of Jose Valverde when he was a closer on my fantasy team, but today was the first time I've seen him pitch. As the YES commentators were pointing out, the 254 pound chubster took FOREVER to throw a pitch. He was doing fake stretches and taking pauses in between throws, not just at-bats! Is he trying to psych out the batter? Or maybe he's just trying to catch his breath. Either way, he's also got a very Joba-esque way to wrap up his games. Now we know how it feels to get mocked on the mound.

The Yankees can go home at least with the satisfaction of winning 2 of the 3 games. Next up, the Twins come to town... hope it goes as well as the ALDS for the past two years!

Opening Night! - FLA over NYM 6-2, 4/1/2011

The Mets began their 2011 campaign tonight hoping for a win against the Marlins and ace pitcher Josh Johnson, but they came up short en route to a 6-2 loss in which they mustered only four hits and two runs.  Newly-appointed number one starter Mike Pelfrey had trouble staying ahead of hitters and kept his pitches low all night, struggling through the first four innings and ultimately getting knocked out of the game by John Buck's grand slam.  The Marlins' retooled bullpen contributed 2.1 scoreless innings and prevented a Mets comeback when reliever Mike Dunn struck out pinch-hitter Scott Hairston to strand two baserunners and end the 7th inning.

This loss hurts, especially since the Mets have the best winning percentage on Opening Day games in the entire league: 32-17.  They had won five season openers in a row heading into the evening, but without Johan Santana getting the start, and especially against Met-killer Josh Johnson (who is now 8-1 lifetime against the Mets), it would not have been unreasonable to expect a 0-1 start to the season.  Still, despite Pelfrey's poor outing, there were some bright spots; Brad Emaus played solid defense at second base, Carlos Beltran looked comfortable at the plate and in the field, and the bullpen performed well.  The Mets will try to take the second game of the series tomorrow, with Jon Niese opposing Ricky Nolasco.  On Sunday, it will be knuckleballer R.A. Dickey against Javier Vazquez.  I'll be away this weekend, but I'll return on Monday with plenty to talk about.  Until then, Let's Go Mets!

The Opening Act - NYY vs. DET 6-3, 3/31/2011

Ah, 2011 baseball is upon us! Below is our post-game report we'd like to put out as often as possible for the Mets, Yankees, or any team you guys want to see; as always, we'll try to offer fresh insight. Please click right on the table to expand the image.

In any case, the Bombers began the season with a beautiful W and in typical fashion; Grandy and Tex backed CC up with one home run a piece. As noted above, I would vouch for CC as the starting pitcher with better real and fantasy game value. Based on his stats, he had good control and kept the ball on the ground except for Miguel Cabrera's long ball. Too bad Jabba walked away with the win on his record.

Final highlight is the ironic at-bat between Phil Coke and Curtis Granderson that swung the game in the Yankees' favor. Two preseasons ago, the Yankees and Tigers traded these players to each other; at least we cashed in one direct win!

Credit to Yahoo! Fantasy Sports for the basic game data.

Prognostications

With a sound win over the Florida Marlins today, the too-long first chapter (prologue?) of the 2011 Mets' season draws to a close, and we New York baseball fans can finally prepare ourselves for real, meaningful baseball and all of the celebration that comes along with tomorrow's (pre-April!) Opening Day. We've trudged through a dark off-season and endured weeks of meaningless exhibition games and off-the-field drama, but the season is here and I couldn't be happier. That also means that this blog of ours will begin to take some shape, with more frequent updates from me (on the Mets) and Cha (on the Yankees), whether in the form of post-game commentary, more numbers-driven analysis and insight, or heated opinion pieces. We hope you'll stick around and contribute in the comments section, or link to us, or simply enjoy the content. We're going to work to make the blog something unique and worthy of bookmarking.

I covered some of the Mets' Spring Training storylines in a prior post, and much of that drama has been resolved in recent days. Luis Castillo was cut from the Mets, signed by the Phillies, and then cut by the Phillies, and in the meantime, Brad Emaus has been named the starting second baseman and has gone on a hitting tear (.306 AVG in 23 games, OBP of .414, and a clutch HR). Carlos Beltran is back in right field and continues to hit the cover off of the ball while making all of us nervous on the basepaths and in the field, but he's making sliding catches and is a valuable asset in the lineup. Chris Young and Chris Capuano have been rock-solid in the rotation, rounding out the starting lineup and the team's biggest concern (Young has a 1.33 ERA in five games; Capuano's is 1.93). The team let Ollie Perez go, so we know that the new front office is smart enough to drop dead weight and has all eyes toward the future. Bernie Madoff is still behind bars. All in all, the Mets' Spring Training has wrapped up beautifully.

The one concern, since there always has to be one, is the status of left fielder Jason Bay, who suddenly feels tension in his chest and has gone to New York to be examined by team doctors. More doom and gloom for the Mets, proclaim the naysayers, but is losing Bay for a few weeks really as bad as, say, losing Beltran would be? Bay was batting .333 in Spring Training, sure, but with two doubles, no HRs, and five RBI... while Duda hit two HRs, walked more (7), and hit more doubles (4). The sample size is quite small, so perhaps it would be better to look at their stats from last year. After all, Duda did play 29 games for the Mets at the end of 2010.

In those 29 games, after starting 1-for-34, Duda hit .320 with 4 HRs in 50 at-bats (per ESPN). In the minor leagues, for the 70 games prior to his emergency call-up, he hit .314 with 17 HRs, 53 RBI, and an OPS of .999. Granted, it's the minor leagues, but it's still solid.

Now let's look at Bay. He had an uncharacteristically bad year, to be sure, but his AVG of .259 isn't that far from his 2009 AVG of .267 with the Red Sox. He's a 20-30 HR hitter, but he only hit six last year, which could be a product of Citi Field. Still, you don't need to hit HRs to produce, and he only gave the team 47 RBI, so that's worrying. Is the team better off with a consistent hitter like J-Bay in the lineup? Of course they are. Is it the end of the Mets' season if he has to miss some time? Hardly! The batting lineup, from Reyes to Pagan to Wright to Beltran to Ike to Thole and on through the bench hitters, even including Emaus at 2B, is potent and full of both speed and power. Between Duda, Willie Harris, and Scott Hairston, the latter two of whom have been absolutely crushing the ball in Spring Training and the former with all of his potential pop, can fill in admirably until Bay is ready.

Of course, if you listen to Sports Illustrated or any number of publications, the Mets shouldn't even bother playing this season. SI picks them to finish dead last in the NL East, the analysts on MLB Network pick them to finish fourth, and ESPN's Jayson Stark lumps them together with the Pirates, the Indians, and the Diamondbacks as the also-rans who should just stay home. In my opinion, the problem here is one of perception; these sports writers see all of the off-the-field drama and all of this past off-season's question marks, and they tally everything up and decide that the Mets will be a losing team. These guys predict 90 wins for the Phillies and respectable numbers for the Braves and Marlins, which is absolutely fine, but don't even mention the strength of the division as a reason for predicting the Mets going down in a streak of blue-and-orange flames. Instead, they point out the number of "question marks" that the Mets have - are these guys paying any attention to Spring Training? Spring performances aren't necessarily indicative of what we can expect during the regular season, especially since everyday players only play a few innings and pitchers are working on their stuff more than trying to win games, but the so-called "question marks" are being filled in every week. Young and Capuano are healthy, and the front-three starters look good and have positive track records. The Mets have, I believe, 35 HRs this spring, compared to the Marlins' 11. Their bench and bullpen are light years better than what they've had in the past few years, and Sports Illustrated picked the Mets to win the World Series just two years ago.

This team isn't that different, and has a higher ceiling, but nobody wants to talk about anything other than finances and health concerns. Admittedly, those two things can tear this team down, but from where I'm sitting, there's a sun shining behind the clouds that new GM Sandy Alderson is trying so hard to clear away. Maybe I'm delusional, but I don't see why the 2011 Mets can't at least compete for the Wild Card. They finished the Grapefruit League season in sixth place, while the Red Sox have gone 1-11 in their last 12 games, 13-19 on the spring as I write this, and the Sox-loving writers haven't flinched. Sure, Spring Training is meaningless, but I'm hoping that the Mets can surprise some people in 2011. It wouldn't be the first time.