Alright, I'm going to whip out some nerdiness and sabermetrics since that was my primary motive for creating this site; it shouldn't get too technical.
I'm not sure if Cashman or either of the Steinbrenners have publicized their estimates for the team's offensive production this year, but their numbers usually float around 1000 run scored anyways. Wow, that's a lot of baseballs to bash all summer long... they would have to score on average 6.17 runs per game. Given the shaky state of the rotation, the Bronx Bombers will definitely have to live up to their name if they want to retain a spot in the playoffs.
There is no right or wrong way to approximate a baseball team's offensive prowess, but I've come to rely on Bill James' "runs created" (RC) statistic. As shown below (source: the ever lovely Wikipedia), the technical version of the formula requires a comprehensive list of variables accounting for various ballplayer styles such as speed and power. I will go in depth about this formula in a future post and how it highly correlates with actual runs scored, but for now, I ask that you trust its statistical significance.
I gathered relevant data from baseball-reference.com on the Yankees' 2010 hitting roster to calculate their RC for the season. As shown in the next table, it is expected that Robbie Cano led the team with his breakout season. To further fuel Swish-mania, Nick was a quiet 3rd in offensive production with an estimated 102 RC. How did he beat A-Rod? Racking up a higher total base count and batting average. Sure, A-Rod had more HRs and RBIs, but his latter stat definitely benefited from his order in the line-up. Keep padding those stats, bud.
Anyways, back to the numbers. As a whole, the 2010 Yankees were projected to create 843 runs, which is pretty darn close to their actual count of 859. We also included the offensive contributions of players who had limited playing time such as Thames and Berkman. The difference could be due to situational hitting, etc., but again, we'll save that discussion for a rainy day.
I next compiled each players' average RC per season; I omitted any seasons with fewer than 150 at-bats since the data relies on too small of a sample size. It becomes obvious that Jeter, Tex, and A-Rod had down years compared to their usual production.
To add a qualitative element to this analysis, I gave each player my subjective rating (1-5, low to high) on how they would perform in 2011 relative to my calculated data. I then applied this rating as a multiplier (1 = 0.6, 2 = 0.8, 3 = 1, etc.) to their average seasonal production. Below is a brief rationale for each of my ratings:
- Jeter - Negative outlook, it's not going to get any easier for him to endure the daily grind, and he has set a high benchmark for himself with an average 106 RC per season. Not to mention any lingering grudge with the front office and the new contract.
- Granderson - He should have a good year having settled into Yankees Stadium and eyeing that short porch in right field. Just have to make sure he and Kevin Long have cured his demons to hit left-handed pitching.
- Teixeira - Tex suffered a particularly awful spring last year, but I think he'll bounce back with his usual numbers.
- A-Rod - Every now and then, A-Rod needs to prove to himself and the world that he's still on top. His past two seasons have been sub-par by his standards, and with his hip in full swing, I expect him to have a big healthy season. And he also tends to turn it on when his team's season goes sour, which could happen.
- Cano - Robbie should contribute at least 100 RC after his breakout season: his plate discipline will continue to improve and he'll get some fine opportunities behind a fully functioning A-Rod.
- Swisher - Can't get enough of this guy, he should have another fine year if he stays healthy and regularly plays the outfield, which may get crowded with Andruw Jones joining the fray.
- Brett Gardner - As mentioned above, I think Andruw Jones joining the team may have more impact upon Gardy's playing time than Swisher's. He may be delegated back into a role of pinch speed and defense with below-average contribution at the plate.
- Russell Martin - I'm sorry, I don't think the Yankees made a smart acquisition here. Martin seems like a typical bounceback candidate, but he has gotten fatter over the years (and hence can't steal like he used) and will deteriorate faster than others as a catcher. It will hard for him to come back to his seasonal averages; I'm gonna wait for Jesus Montero, sorry bro.
- Andruw Jones - A more certain wild card than Mr. Martin. Andruw showed sparks of resurgence last year with a lot of bombs in a relatively small size of at-bats. He's an improved version of the role that Marcus Thames played last year. As indicated in the table, I did have to cut his RC in half given uncertain playing time. Playtime can get tight unless Jones really justifies being out there.
- Other players - The individual efforts of Kearns, Cervelli, and Pena will fluctuate based on playing time, but their overall contribution sounds about right at <>
With their powers combined (what's the reference?), the Yankees should have a better year offensively with ~930 runs created! Is that number too high? Not necessarily.... they have surpassed this mark twice in the past 2 decades with 968 in 2007 and 965 in 1998. With only one pitcher truly locked down in their rotation, it would be a swell time to do it again.
