The Opening Act - NYY vs. DET 6-3, 3/31/2011

Ah, 2011 baseball is upon us! Below is our post-game report we'd like to put out as often as possible for the Mets, Yankees, or any team you guys want to see; as always, we'll try to offer fresh insight. Please click right on the table to expand the image.

In any case, the Bombers began the season with a beautiful W and in typical fashion; Grandy and Tex backed CC up with one home run a piece. As noted above, I would vouch for CC as the starting pitcher with better real and fantasy game value. Based on his stats, he had good control and kept the ball on the ground except for Miguel Cabrera's long ball. Too bad Jabba walked away with the win on his record.

Final highlight is the ironic at-bat between Phil Coke and Curtis Granderson that swung the game in the Yankees' favor. Two preseasons ago, the Yankees and Tigers traded these players to each other; at least we cashed in one direct win!

Credit to Yahoo! Fantasy Sports for the basic game data.

Prognostications

With a sound win over the Florida Marlins today, the too-long first chapter (prologue?) of the 2011 Mets' season draws to a close, and we New York baseball fans can finally prepare ourselves for real, meaningful baseball and all of the celebration that comes along with tomorrow's (pre-April!) Opening Day. We've trudged through a dark off-season and endured weeks of meaningless exhibition games and off-the-field drama, but the season is here and I couldn't be happier. That also means that this blog of ours will begin to take some shape, with more frequent updates from me (on the Mets) and Cha (on the Yankees), whether in the form of post-game commentary, more numbers-driven analysis and insight, or heated opinion pieces. We hope you'll stick around and contribute in the comments section, or link to us, or simply enjoy the content. We're going to work to make the blog something unique and worthy of bookmarking.

I covered some of the Mets' Spring Training storylines in a prior post, and much of that drama has been resolved in recent days. Luis Castillo was cut from the Mets, signed by the Phillies, and then cut by the Phillies, and in the meantime, Brad Emaus has been named the starting second baseman and has gone on a hitting tear (.306 AVG in 23 games, OBP of .414, and a clutch HR). Carlos Beltran is back in right field and continues to hit the cover off of the ball while making all of us nervous on the basepaths and in the field, but he's making sliding catches and is a valuable asset in the lineup. Chris Young and Chris Capuano have been rock-solid in the rotation, rounding out the starting lineup and the team's biggest concern (Young has a 1.33 ERA in five games; Capuano's is 1.93). The team let Ollie Perez go, so we know that the new front office is smart enough to drop dead weight and has all eyes toward the future. Bernie Madoff is still behind bars. All in all, the Mets' Spring Training has wrapped up beautifully.

The one concern, since there always has to be one, is the status of left fielder Jason Bay, who suddenly feels tension in his chest and has gone to New York to be examined by team doctors. More doom and gloom for the Mets, proclaim the naysayers, but is losing Bay for a few weeks really as bad as, say, losing Beltran would be? Bay was batting .333 in Spring Training, sure, but with two doubles, no HRs, and five RBI... while Duda hit two HRs, walked more (7), and hit more doubles (4). The sample size is quite small, so perhaps it would be better to look at their stats from last year. After all, Duda did play 29 games for the Mets at the end of 2010.

In those 29 games, after starting 1-for-34, Duda hit .320 with 4 HRs in 50 at-bats (per ESPN). In the minor leagues, for the 70 games prior to his emergency call-up, he hit .314 with 17 HRs, 53 RBI, and an OPS of .999. Granted, it's the minor leagues, but it's still solid.

Now let's look at Bay. He had an uncharacteristically bad year, to be sure, but his AVG of .259 isn't that far from his 2009 AVG of .267 with the Red Sox. He's a 20-30 HR hitter, but he only hit six last year, which could be a product of Citi Field. Still, you don't need to hit HRs to produce, and he only gave the team 47 RBI, so that's worrying. Is the team better off with a consistent hitter like J-Bay in the lineup? Of course they are. Is it the end of the Mets' season if he has to miss some time? Hardly! The batting lineup, from Reyes to Pagan to Wright to Beltran to Ike to Thole and on through the bench hitters, even including Emaus at 2B, is potent and full of both speed and power. Between Duda, Willie Harris, and Scott Hairston, the latter two of whom have been absolutely crushing the ball in Spring Training and the former with all of his potential pop, can fill in admirably until Bay is ready.

Of course, if you listen to Sports Illustrated or any number of publications, the Mets shouldn't even bother playing this season. SI picks them to finish dead last in the NL East, the analysts on MLB Network pick them to finish fourth, and ESPN's Jayson Stark lumps them together with the Pirates, the Indians, and the Diamondbacks as the also-rans who should just stay home. In my opinion, the problem here is one of perception; these sports writers see all of the off-the-field drama and all of this past off-season's question marks, and they tally everything up and decide that the Mets will be a losing team. These guys predict 90 wins for the Phillies and respectable numbers for the Braves and Marlins, which is absolutely fine, but don't even mention the strength of the division as a reason for predicting the Mets going down in a streak of blue-and-orange flames. Instead, they point out the number of "question marks" that the Mets have - are these guys paying any attention to Spring Training? Spring performances aren't necessarily indicative of what we can expect during the regular season, especially since everyday players only play a few innings and pitchers are working on their stuff more than trying to win games, but the so-called "question marks" are being filled in every week. Young and Capuano are healthy, and the front-three starters look good and have positive track records. The Mets have, I believe, 35 HRs this spring, compared to the Marlins' 11. Their bench and bullpen are light years better than what they've had in the past few years, and Sports Illustrated picked the Mets to win the World Series just two years ago.

This team isn't that different, and has a higher ceiling, but nobody wants to talk about anything other than finances and health concerns. Admittedly, those two things can tear this team down, but from where I'm sitting, there's a sun shining behind the clouds that new GM Sandy Alderson is trying so hard to clear away. Maybe I'm delusional, but I don't see why the 2011 Mets can't at least compete for the Wild Card. They finished the Grapefruit League season in sixth place, while the Red Sox have gone 1-11 in their last 12 games, 13-19 on the spring as I write this, and the Sox-loving writers haven't flinched. Sure, Spring Training is meaningless, but I'm hoping that the Mets can surprise some people in 2011. It wouldn't be the first time.

"I'd rather be lucky than good."

TCB. Typical closer behavior. I don't know where these guys get their attitude, but Rafael Soriano has had more than his fair share of star treatment since joining the Yankees. He has a so-called rule to not face any opposing hitters from the same division during spring training. It even got to the point recently where he pitched in a minor league game to potentially avoid revealing his black box of tricks and slurves. Well, it might not be magic, but lady luck seems to be on Mr. Soriano's side.

I'll concede that his top line stats (from baseball-reference.com) are impressive: over the past two seasons, he has been effective with a sub-3.00 ERA, efficient with a sub-1.00 WHIP, and clutch with 20+ saves seasons. Opposing hitters couldn't get much wood on the ball with a 0.163 BA and 0.6 HR/9 innings last season. At the same time, look at his 0.199 batting average per balls in play (BABIP) in 2011. His career BABIP is an astounding 0.243, 50 basis points lower than the MLB average of 0.298. I'm not sure about how the 2009 Braves infielders rated in defense, but the equivalent Rays players in 2010 probably pushed the above stats in Soriano's favor.

I will reserve full judgment until he goes out on the mound this season and hopefully shuts down any hopes for the opponent team to win before Mariano comes out, but one of these days... his production will likely suffer from mean reversion. That said, Soriano could strike the same BABIP rate with three potential Gold Gloves holding down the infield (sorry Jeter).

In either case, he's made his choice to be a defiant Yankee, especially after making a comment this week about how he doesn't "have to change anything" after coming to New York. The guy's got enough steam to match his bloated contract... what team does that? An player opt-out option in each year of his contract? No wonder Soriano feels like he owns the place. Unfortunately, that may be the only way free agents would be willing to sign with the Yanks these days. Try to cash in on a bigger contract or pocket the insurance, rain or shine.

A bit of the above is media re-hash, so I'll leave you with something original - this guy's attitude steenks and it's gonna be a long time before he comes close to Mariano Rivera's prestige.

Fantasy Baseball - Why We Really Follow the Game

I wish it didn't have to come to this, but I have to say something about how the Mets finally got rid of their mess - Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez. In the fewest words possible - overpaid headcases. I'm sure Gio is a bit happier than I am that Citi Field has been purged of its plagues. That said, I heard rumors of the Yankees picking up the latter lefty. It remains to be seen if we get the good, bad, or most likely bipolar Ollie. As long as we don't have to cough up the $12MM remaining on his contract, it's not a bad low-risk high-return acquisition...

Who am I kidding? He'd be less useful than this jerk, with or without the droopy moustache:

Anyways, apologies for not posting as often as we'd like to. I would have crafted a well thought-out BS excuse, but considering this is my first blog, I have to admit that brainstorming the topics is much easier than putting them into prose.

In the meantime, Gio and I had an epic fantasy baseball draft with some high school friends in Atlantic City - below is a spreadsheet of the results (click on the image to view full size). The offensive stats we use are: Runs, HR, RBI, SB, BB, TB, batting AVG, and OPS. For pitching, we determine performance by: Wins, SVs, Ks, HLDs, ERA, WHIP, K/BB, and Quality Starts. These stats have been tweaked over the years, but I feel like they cover the wide spectrum of ballplayers. We also retain 5 players from the previous season which determine some draft pick compensations based on their average round selection.

Despite losing cash in non-baseball activites, I feel like I walked away with a solid draft (in blue). The hitting could use a little work, a bit on the young unproven side, but I'm proud of my fireball-hurling rotation; they should rack up the strikeouts, wins, and quality starts. Haven't picked your team yet? You're more than welcome to get some ideas from our table. Happy drafting!

A Fresh Start

With all of the success that New York-area sports teams are having these days (Jets, Knicks, Rangers, St. John's, Big East teams in general, Red Bulls all making playoff/tournament runs), one might assume that we NY baseball fans would be justified in keeping baseball off of our minds until Opening Day and the official start of the 2011 season. Not so, kind readers. In fact, with Spring Training games now being televised daily and in the era of the twenty-four hour news cycle, we're already in the thick of the statistics, the predictions, the scrutiny... Hell, players are even coming up with mystery ailments (I'm looking at you, Carlos Beltran, with the sudden tendonitis in your non-surgical knee) and are already throwing themselves headfirst at the DL. If you're the Wilpon family, you're embroiled in heated legal proceedings. If you're Miguel Cabrera, you're handcuffed in the back of a police cruiser, singing, "Hermano, hermanooo, oyeee!" at a cop who finally gives in and tells you, "No hablo espanol." In short, the season's heating up before it has even started, and for the Mets and Yankees, our two favorite teams, that's good news. An exciting March will take our minds off of our ho-hum, quiet off-seasons, and these first few weeks of games have presented a slew of issues. As the resident Mets blogger, I'll tackle some pressing Mets issues, as Cha, the resident Yankee blogger, already analyzed the Yankee lineup with some very useful analysis on runs-created and the impact of certain players in the lineup. My Mets analysis today will be pretty much void of statistics, because the Mets don't produce numbers. They just produce headlines. Let's dive in.

The obvious first stop on our trail of terror through Mets camp and the current issues facing the team is with the Wilpons, who continue to swear ("No, we're serious!") that their off-field financial troubles, stemming from the ponzi scheme of longtime former friend Bernie Madoff, won't affect the day-to-day operations of the Mets. Theorize all you want; we'll never know if financial constraints kept new GM Sandy Alderson from offering any big deals this past off-season, but I tend to believe him when he says that he's waiting for huge money to come off the books so that he can really shape the new direction of this team in one fell swoop. The bigger question, I think, is whether the Wilpons are willing to eat the salaries of Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo, two members of this team that, in all likelihood, will not be on the roster come Opening Day... though I think that Castillo still has a shot. This brings us to...

Luis himself. Bloated contract, sub-par fielder (and fading fast), terrible hitter, and apparently very frustrated that he has to compete in Spring Training with Daniel Murphy and Rule 5 pick Brad Emaus for the 2B job. Well, Luis, the new GM and his cadre of assistants expect results from their players, so if you care about this team, you should be happy that they want the right man for the job. Unfortunately, that's probably not you. Maybe you shouldn't admit that the Yankee pop-up from forever-ago still weighs heavily on you and makes you nervous in the field? You know that Yankee fans have to hear that and just eat it up. For the record, here are the stats of the three competing 2Bs:

Luis Castillo (the incumbent) - 3/14, 1 R, 1 RBI, 2 BB, .214 AVG, .313 OBP.

Daniel Murphy (the challenger) - 7/24, 4 doubles, 6 RBI, 1 BB, .292 AVG, .320 OBP.
--Looking pretty good, but the biggest obstacle facing Murph is that his defense isn't wonderful. He can also play other infield positions, which means that he might be better suited for a bench role. He's such a hard worker, though!

Brad Emaus (the baby) - 2/12, 0 RBI, 2 BB, .167 AVG, .500 OPS.
--Those numbers are pretty terrible, but Emaus has a few things working in his favor. For one, he's a Rule 5 pick, so the Mets will have to put him on the major league roster if they want to keep him, and the scouts say that he has some real potential as a 2B. Note that he has half as many at-bats as Murphy, so he could still pick it up... and he's batting third against the Marlins today.

It's still early in ST, so these numbers aren't even worth much, but you can see just how diverse the field is among these three players. Let's move on.

Another reason that the Mets are going to have to make some difficult roster decisions is that this guy right here, Carlos Beltran, is oscillating daily between, "Oh, I feel great! Let's play hopscotch!" and, "Ooooh, I can't feel my legs! Maybe I should just sit out for the next two weeks... I'll still maybe, kinda, sorta be prepared for Opening Day! Right, Mr. Boras? Is that what you wanted me to say?" I don't see how big ol' Beltran will play over a hundred games this season, especially if he has separate problems in both knees, and while I commend him for offering to move over to RF, I don't want the team to suffer because one of their "superstars" can't get to half of the balls hit to the acre of land in Citi Field's right field. I hope he proves me wrong, but the concern is who will replace him when/if he can't play... and if I have to pick between Willie Harris and Lucas Duda-Where's-My-Car, I'd just as soon get "Teenage Hitting Machine" and perennially-injured Fernando Martinez up to the majors. We'll have to monitor how this drama progresses throughout Spring Training, but letting Beltran DH up until the week before Opening Day will not be enough preparation. Another question mark.

Hello, Chris Young. I was going to post something about Oliver Perez, but since he's making the move to the bullpen for two outings and then will likely get cut, I'm not going to waste the space. This post is getting rather long-winded for an introduction, so I'll just end it here with Mr. Young and the starting pitchers. Everyone's saying that poor pitching will be the Mets' achilles heel, but I've been watching the likely starters of the staff (Pelfrey, Dickey, Niese, Young, and Chris Capuano), and they all seem to be preparing themselves well for the road ahead. The big question is whether Young and Capuano can stay healthy, but I'm pretty optimistic. I think that, with these gentlemen rounding out the order, the Mets will be a more balanced team this year, and I think that they'll definitely defy expectations and finish over .500.

The actual W-L record will depend on a multitude of factors, like whether players can stay healthy, whether certain players (Pelf, Dickey, Pagan) can repeat their 2010 successes, whether Reyes goes berserk in a contract year, whether Wright can stay consistent, whether Bay lives up to his contract... The list goes on and on. I'm just thankful that I survived the winter and could write this first Mets-based post for the blog in the heat of ST and with April fast approaching, and even if it's sort of meandering and lacks any new insight, I hope that our new readers stick around as we wind up the blog and start to post regularly. It's going to be a long, awesome season.

"He doesn't look a thing like Jesus..."

You could plug in all sorts of captions for the below picture as Cashman looks fondly (maybe too fondly) at the top Yankees prospect Jesus Montero, the heir apparent to Jorge Posada:

• Is he ready to take the reins? It would sure help the team's average age if he's on the roster...
• How much can I inflate his trade value? Better yet, which GM is gonna take the bait when I've exhausted his best seasons and all that's left is a mediocre DH?
• Hank's right, he's definitely fatter than Russell Martin up close...
• Mmm Jesus... big and beautiful!

At 6' 4'' and 225 lbs, Jesus may not have the ideal catcher figure to endure two decades behind the plate, but such an issue hasn't hindered the comparable Joe Mauer's offensive or defensive ability. Albeit a small sample size, Jesus' minor league stats show promise, notably the steady growth of walks and OPS (the lack of stolen bases shouldn't come as a surprise). As mentioned in an article on the Yankees site today, his skills behind the plate are also coming along nicely; he's already thrown out two baserunners in Spring Training!

However, it remains to be seen if the Yankees still see their prospects as enticing trade chips or budding team leaders, an ever graver issue as Rivera, Posada, and Jeter head into their twilight seasons. Headlines have been popping up about other minor leagues who impressed at the last two spring training games. With more flexibility, I have a gut feeling that Cashman will strike a balance between trading for immediate value and reserving for the future. There is still time for these low risk-high growth projects to play out, which is the one of the few reasons why I feel bringing Russell Martin on board was a decent call by the front office. He can provide average to possibly above-avg. services while under contract until Jesus good to go. And in the meantime, if the 2011 season runs sour, it would be a good time to promote the babies (yeah I said it) and see how they handle being at the bigs.

On a final note, bonus points if you know the song reference for this post title.