Pelf's Big Flop - NYM falls to PHI 10-7, 4/6/2011

Number one starter Mike Pelfrey struggled through his second start of the season and the Mets came just short of a comeback victory as the Phillies took Game 2 of the road series tonight in Philadelphia.  Pelfrey lasted only 2.0 innings and left with the bases loaded in the third, but Taylor Buchholz did his best to stop the bleeding and the Mets rallied in the fourth and fifth innings to tie the game at 7-7.  Blaine Boyer allowed three runs in relief of Buchholz and the Mets were unable to build a second rally, so Philly ties the series at 1-1 and the Mets head into the final game of the series tomorrow looking for a win against Roy Halladay.  Jon Niese will start for New York, and the offense will attempt to carry the grit and attitude that they displayed while down 7-0 tonight into a game where they will likely need to scratch and claw for one or two runs.

Pelfrey's second atrocious outing is an obvious cause for concern, especially when you consider the string of hits and runs that the Mets put together against Blanton.  Assuming a regular schedule and a consistent 1-5 rotation, the Mets may not face Blanton again this season (that's just the way that the schedules line up), so games where they can avoid dealing with Halladay and Lee have to turn into wins.  Hopefully, Niese can spin a gem tomorrow against Halladay, and the momentum will continue to build for the Mets as they head back to New York for their home opener.  Obviously, neither of tonight's starters deserve a fantasy pick, but fantasy players have to love the offensive onslaught.  Tomorrow, you probably won't see 28 hits and 17 runs.

Mets Invade Philly - NYM over PHI 7-1, 4/5/2011

On a night where the Mets had everything to gain against the supposedly infallible Phillies, New York rode into Philadelphia and took the first game of their second road series on the tall shoulders of 6'10" starter Chris Young.  One-time World Series MVP Cole Hamels was shelled for six runs and knocked out in the third inning, giving the Mets all but one of their runs in that frame, but the standout performance of the night was not what Young did with his pitches (though he did baffle the Phillies for 5.1 innings) but what he did with his bat.  Alongside a 4-for-5 night from David Wright, Young went 3-for-3 with a run and an RBI, and he became the first pitcher in Mets history to collect two hits in one inning.

Young and the bullpen looked great, and the lineup's ability to take advantage of Hamels's mistakes are a positive sign for this club at this early point in the season.  The big question is whether "ace" Mike Pelfrey will be able to handle the pressure against Joe Blanton on Wednesday night, but at least he won't face Roy Halladay in his second start.  With a few more wins of this caliber, the Mets can start to turn some heads in the media, but they have to try for a series win against Philly, and that campaign continues with Game 2 and another chance to silence Ryan Howard and the Phillies' staff of Cy Young favorites.

Interesting sidenote, courtesy of talk radio WFAN: with this loss, Hamels is 1-6 with a 4.84 ERA in eight starts since calling the Mets "choke artists" in December 2008.  As I argued in a prior post, the Mets can turn the perception of this team around with a hot start, and though tonight's game was somewhat uneventful and quiet after the big inning of offense and after Young worked out of a bases loaded jam in the fifth, the fact that the Mets were able to keep the comeback-prone Phillies off of the board speaks volumes about how effective they were.  Let's hope that Pelfrey can take a page from Chris Young's book - if not at the plate, then at least on the mound.

Boom Boom Pow! - DET beats NYY 10-7, 4/3/2011

Well, you can't win 'em all! In summary, the Yanks suffered their first loss of the season despite another offensive outburst. Hughes and subsequently Colon pitched poorly, giving up 4+ runs a piece; the Tigers' Max Scherzer was really no better, so neither starter deserved a pick in my book.

In terms of offense, the Yankees were clicking on all cylinders (particularly Posada), but the Tigers went one step further. They had a torrid 0.359 BA during the game and capitalized on scoring opportunities as reflected by a relatively high RBI/Left on Base ratio despite a similar # of total bases by the Yanks. Miguel Cabrera was ripping balls out of the park as fast as he took down [generic liquor] shots before his DUI; the Tigers rookie Brennan Boesch was just as effective at the plate.

On a final note, I only knew of Jose Valverde when he was a closer on my fantasy team, but today was the first time I've seen him pitch. As the YES commentators were pointing out, the 254 pound chubster took FOREVER to throw a pitch. He was doing fake stretches and taking pauses in between throws, not just at-bats! Is he trying to psych out the batter? Or maybe he's just trying to catch his breath. Either way, he's also got a very Joba-esque way to wrap up his games. Now we know how it feels to get mocked on the mound.

The Yankees can go home at least with the satisfaction of winning 2 of the 3 games. Next up, the Twins come to town... hope it goes as well as the ALDS for the past two years!

Opening Night! - FLA over NYM 6-2, 4/1/2011

The Mets began their 2011 campaign tonight hoping for a win against the Marlins and ace pitcher Josh Johnson, but they came up short en route to a 6-2 loss in which they mustered only four hits and two runs.  Newly-appointed number one starter Mike Pelfrey had trouble staying ahead of hitters and kept his pitches low all night, struggling through the first four innings and ultimately getting knocked out of the game by John Buck's grand slam.  The Marlins' retooled bullpen contributed 2.1 scoreless innings and prevented a Mets comeback when reliever Mike Dunn struck out pinch-hitter Scott Hairston to strand two baserunners and end the 7th inning.

This loss hurts, especially since the Mets have the best winning percentage on Opening Day games in the entire league: 32-17.  They had won five season openers in a row heading into the evening, but without Johan Santana getting the start, and especially against Met-killer Josh Johnson (who is now 8-1 lifetime against the Mets), it would not have been unreasonable to expect a 0-1 start to the season.  Still, despite Pelfrey's poor outing, there were some bright spots; Brad Emaus played solid defense at second base, Carlos Beltran looked comfortable at the plate and in the field, and the bullpen performed well.  The Mets will try to take the second game of the series tomorrow, with Jon Niese opposing Ricky Nolasco.  On Sunday, it will be knuckleballer R.A. Dickey against Javier Vazquez.  I'll be away this weekend, but I'll return on Monday with plenty to talk about.  Until then, Let's Go Mets!

The Opening Act - NYY vs. DET 6-3, 3/31/2011

Ah, 2011 baseball is upon us! Below is our post-game report we'd like to put out as often as possible for the Mets, Yankees, or any team you guys want to see; as always, we'll try to offer fresh insight. Please click right on the table to expand the image.

In any case, the Bombers began the season with a beautiful W and in typical fashion; Grandy and Tex backed CC up with one home run a piece. As noted above, I would vouch for CC as the starting pitcher with better real and fantasy game value. Based on his stats, he had good control and kept the ball on the ground except for Miguel Cabrera's long ball. Too bad Jabba walked away with the win on his record.

Final highlight is the ironic at-bat between Phil Coke and Curtis Granderson that swung the game in the Yankees' favor. Two preseasons ago, the Yankees and Tigers traded these players to each other; at least we cashed in one direct win!

Credit to Yahoo! Fantasy Sports for the basic game data.

Prognostications

With a sound win over the Florida Marlins today, the too-long first chapter (prologue?) of the 2011 Mets' season draws to a close, and we New York baseball fans can finally prepare ourselves for real, meaningful baseball and all of the celebration that comes along with tomorrow's (pre-April!) Opening Day. We've trudged through a dark off-season and endured weeks of meaningless exhibition games and off-the-field drama, but the season is here and I couldn't be happier. That also means that this blog of ours will begin to take some shape, with more frequent updates from me (on the Mets) and Cha (on the Yankees), whether in the form of post-game commentary, more numbers-driven analysis and insight, or heated opinion pieces. We hope you'll stick around and contribute in the comments section, or link to us, or simply enjoy the content. We're going to work to make the blog something unique and worthy of bookmarking.

I covered some of the Mets' Spring Training storylines in a prior post, and much of that drama has been resolved in recent days. Luis Castillo was cut from the Mets, signed by the Phillies, and then cut by the Phillies, and in the meantime, Brad Emaus has been named the starting second baseman and has gone on a hitting tear (.306 AVG in 23 games, OBP of .414, and a clutch HR). Carlos Beltran is back in right field and continues to hit the cover off of the ball while making all of us nervous on the basepaths and in the field, but he's making sliding catches and is a valuable asset in the lineup. Chris Young and Chris Capuano have been rock-solid in the rotation, rounding out the starting lineup and the team's biggest concern (Young has a 1.33 ERA in five games; Capuano's is 1.93). The team let Ollie Perez go, so we know that the new front office is smart enough to drop dead weight and has all eyes toward the future. Bernie Madoff is still behind bars. All in all, the Mets' Spring Training has wrapped up beautifully.

The one concern, since there always has to be one, is the status of left fielder Jason Bay, who suddenly feels tension in his chest and has gone to New York to be examined by team doctors. More doom and gloom for the Mets, proclaim the naysayers, but is losing Bay for a few weeks really as bad as, say, losing Beltran would be? Bay was batting .333 in Spring Training, sure, but with two doubles, no HRs, and five RBI... while Duda hit two HRs, walked more (7), and hit more doubles (4). The sample size is quite small, so perhaps it would be better to look at their stats from last year. After all, Duda did play 29 games for the Mets at the end of 2010.

In those 29 games, after starting 1-for-34, Duda hit .320 with 4 HRs in 50 at-bats (per ESPN). In the minor leagues, for the 70 games prior to his emergency call-up, he hit .314 with 17 HRs, 53 RBI, and an OPS of .999. Granted, it's the minor leagues, but it's still solid.

Now let's look at Bay. He had an uncharacteristically bad year, to be sure, but his AVG of .259 isn't that far from his 2009 AVG of .267 with the Red Sox. He's a 20-30 HR hitter, but he only hit six last year, which could be a product of Citi Field. Still, you don't need to hit HRs to produce, and he only gave the team 47 RBI, so that's worrying. Is the team better off with a consistent hitter like J-Bay in the lineup? Of course they are. Is it the end of the Mets' season if he has to miss some time? Hardly! The batting lineup, from Reyes to Pagan to Wright to Beltran to Ike to Thole and on through the bench hitters, even including Emaus at 2B, is potent and full of both speed and power. Between Duda, Willie Harris, and Scott Hairston, the latter two of whom have been absolutely crushing the ball in Spring Training and the former with all of his potential pop, can fill in admirably until Bay is ready.

Of course, if you listen to Sports Illustrated or any number of publications, the Mets shouldn't even bother playing this season. SI picks them to finish dead last in the NL East, the analysts on MLB Network pick them to finish fourth, and ESPN's Jayson Stark lumps them together with the Pirates, the Indians, and the Diamondbacks as the also-rans who should just stay home. In my opinion, the problem here is one of perception; these sports writers see all of the off-the-field drama and all of this past off-season's question marks, and they tally everything up and decide that the Mets will be a losing team. These guys predict 90 wins for the Phillies and respectable numbers for the Braves and Marlins, which is absolutely fine, but don't even mention the strength of the division as a reason for predicting the Mets going down in a streak of blue-and-orange flames. Instead, they point out the number of "question marks" that the Mets have - are these guys paying any attention to Spring Training? Spring performances aren't necessarily indicative of what we can expect during the regular season, especially since everyday players only play a few innings and pitchers are working on their stuff more than trying to win games, but the so-called "question marks" are being filled in every week. Young and Capuano are healthy, and the front-three starters look good and have positive track records. The Mets have, I believe, 35 HRs this spring, compared to the Marlins' 11. Their bench and bullpen are light years better than what they've had in the past few years, and Sports Illustrated picked the Mets to win the World Series just two years ago.

This team isn't that different, and has a higher ceiling, but nobody wants to talk about anything other than finances and health concerns. Admittedly, those two things can tear this team down, but from where I'm sitting, there's a sun shining behind the clouds that new GM Sandy Alderson is trying so hard to clear away. Maybe I'm delusional, but I don't see why the 2011 Mets can't at least compete for the Wild Card. They finished the Grapefruit League season in sixth place, while the Red Sox have gone 1-11 in their last 12 games, 13-19 on the spring as I write this, and the Sox-loving writers haven't flinched. Sure, Spring Training is meaningless, but I'm hoping that the Mets can surprise some people in 2011. It wouldn't be the first time.

"I'd rather be lucky than good."

TCB. Typical closer behavior. I don't know where these guys get their attitude, but Rafael Soriano has had more than his fair share of star treatment since joining the Yankees. He has a so-called rule to not face any opposing hitters from the same division during spring training. It even got to the point recently where he pitched in a minor league game to potentially avoid revealing his black box of tricks and slurves. Well, it might not be magic, but lady luck seems to be on Mr. Soriano's side.

I'll concede that his top line stats (from baseball-reference.com) are impressive: over the past two seasons, he has been effective with a sub-3.00 ERA, efficient with a sub-1.00 WHIP, and clutch with 20+ saves seasons. Opposing hitters couldn't get much wood on the ball with a 0.163 BA and 0.6 HR/9 innings last season. At the same time, look at his 0.199 batting average per balls in play (BABIP) in 2011. His career BABIP is an astounding 0.243, 50 basis points lower than the MLB average of 0.298. I'm not sure about how the 2009 Braves infielders rated in defense, but the equivalent Rays players in 2010 probably pushed the above stats in Soriano's favor.

I will reserve full judgment until he goes out on the mound this season and hopefully shuts down any hopes for the opponent team to win before Mariano comes out, but one of these days... his production will likely suffer from mean reversion. That said, Soriano could strike the same BABIP rate with three potential Gold Gloves holding down the infield (sorry Jeter).

In either case, he's made his choice to be a defiant Yankee, especially after making a comment this week about how he doesn't "have to change anything" after coming to New York. The guy's got enough steam to match his bloated contract... what team does that? An player opt-out option in each year of his contract? No wonder Soriano feels like he owns the place. Unfortunately, that may be the only way free agents would be willing to sign with the Yanks these days. Try to cash in on a bigger contract or pocket the insurance, rain or shine.

A bit of the above is media re-hash, so I'll leave you with something original - this guy's attitude steenks and it's gonna be a long time before he comes close to Mariano Rivera's prestige.

Fantasy Baseball - Why We Really Follow the Game

I wish it didn't have to come to this, but I have to say something about how the Mets finally got rid of their mess - Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez. In the fewest words possible - overpaid headcases. I'm sure Gio is a bit happier than I am that Citi Field has been purged of its plagues. That said, I heard rumors of the Yankees picking up the latter lefty. It remains to be seen if we get the good, bad, or most likely bipolar Ollie. As long as we don't have to cough up the $12MM remaining on his contract, it's not a bad low-risk high-return acquisition...

Who am I kidding? He'd be less useful than this jerk, with or without the droopy moustache:

Anyways, apologies for not posting as often as we'd like to. I would have crafted a well thought-out BS excuse, but considering this is my first blog, I have to admit that brainstorming the topics is much easier than putting them into prose.

In the meantime, Gio and I had an epic fantasy baseball draft with some high school friends in Atlantic City - below is a spreadsheet of the results (click on the image to view full size). The offensive stats we use are: Runs, HR, RBI, SB, BB, TB, batting AVG, and OPS. For pitching, we determine performance by: Wins, SVs, Ks, HLDs, ERA, WHIP, K/BB, and Quality Starts. These stats have been tweaked over the years, but I feel like they cover the wide spectrum of ballplayers. We also retain 5 players from the previous season which determine some draft pick compensations based on their average round selection.

Despite losing cash in non-baseball activites, I feel like I walked away with a solid draft (in blue). The hitting could use a little work, a bit on the young unproven side, but I'm proud of my fireball-hurling rotation; they should rack up the strikeouts, wins, and quality starts. Haven't picked your team yet? You're more than welcome to get some ideas from our table. Happy drafting!

A Fresh Start

With all of the success that New York-area sports teams are having these days (Jets, Knicks, Rangers, St. John's, Big East teams in general, Red Bulls all making playoff/tournament runs), one might assume that we NY baseball fans would be justified in keeping baseball off of our minds until Opening Day and the official start of the 2011 season. Not so, kind readers. In fact, with Spring Training games now being televised daily and in the era of the twenty-four hour news cycle, we're already in the thick of the statistics, the predictions, the scrutiny... Hell, players are even coming up with mystery ailments (I'm looking at you, Carlos Beltran, with the sudden tendonitis in your non-surgical knee) and are already throwing themselves headfirst at the DL. If you're the Wilpon family, you're embroiled in heated legal proceedings. If you're Miguel Cabrera, you're handcuffed in the back of a police cruiser, singing, "Hermano, hermanooo, oyeee!" at a cop who finally gives in and tells you, "No hablo espanol." In short, the season's heating up before it has even started, and for the Mets and Yankees, our two favorite teams, that's good news. An exciting March will take our minds off of our ho-hum, quiet off-seasons, and these first few weeks of games have presented a slew of issues. As the resident Mets blogger, I'll tackle some pressing Mets issues, as Cha, the resident Yankee blogger, already analyzed the Yankee lineup with some very useful analysis on runs-created and the impact of certain players in the lineup. My Mets analysis today will be pretty much void of statistics, because the Mets don't produce numbers. They just produce headlines. Let's dive in.

The obvious first stop on our trail of terror through Mets camp and the current issues facing the team is with the Wilpons, who continue to swear ("No, we're serious!") that their off-field financial troubles, stemming from the ponzi scheme of longtime former friend Bernie Madoff, won't affect the day-to-day operations of the Mets. Theorize all you want; we'll never know if financial constraints kept new GM Sandy Alderson from offering any big deals this past off-season, but I tend to believe him when he says that he's waiting for huge money to come off the books so that he can really shape the new direction of this team in one fell swoop. The bigger question, I think, is whether the Wilpons are willing to eat the salaries of Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo, two members of this team that, in all likelihood, will not be on the roster come Opening Day... though I think that Castillo still has a shot. This brings us to...

Luis himself. Bloated contract, sub-par fielder (and fading fast), terrible hitter, and apparently very frustrated that he has to compete in Spring Training with Daniel Murphy and Rule 5 pick Brad Emaus for the 2B job. Well, Luis, the new GM and his cadre of assistants expect results from their players, so if you care about this team, you should be happy that they want the right man for the job. Unfortunately, that's probably not you. Maybe you shouldn't admit that the Yankee pop-up from forever-ago still weighs heavily on you and makes you nervous in the field? You know that Yankee fans have to hear that and just eat it up. For the record, here are the stats of the three competing 2Bs:

Luis Castillo (the incumbent) - 3/14, 1 R, 1 RBI, 2 BB, .214 AVG, .313 OBP.

Daniel Murphy (the challenger) - 7/24, 4 doubles, 6 RBI, 1 BB, .292 AVG, .320 OBP.
--Looking pretty good, but the biggest obstacle facing Murph is that his defense isn't wonderful. He can also play other infield positions, which means that he might be better suited for a bench role. He's such a hard worker, though!

Brad Emaus (the baby) - 2/12, 0 RBI, 2 BB, .167 AVG, .500 OPS.
--Those numbers are pretty terrible, but Emaus has a few things working in his favor. For one, he's a Rule 5 pick, so the Mets will have to put him on the major league roster if they want to keep him, and the scouts say that he has some real potential as a 2B. Note that he has half as many at-bats as Murphy, so he could still pick it up... and he's batting third against the Marlins today.

It's still early in ST, so these numbers aren't even worth much, but you can see just how diverse the field is among these three players. Let's move on.

Another reason that the Mets are going to have to make some difficult roster decisions is that this guy right here, Carlos Beltran, is oscillating daily between, "Oh, I feel great! Let's play hopscotch!" and, "Ooooh, I can't feel my legs! Maybe I should just sit out for the next two weeks... I'll still maybe, kinda, sorta be prepared for Opening Day! Right, Mr. Boras? Is that what you wanted me to say?" I don't see how big ol' Beltran will play over a hundred games this season, especially if he has separate problems in both knees, and while I commend him for offering to move over to RF, I don't want the team to suffer because one of their "superstars" can't get to half of the balls hit to the acre of land in Citi Field's right field. I hope he proves me wrong, but the concern is who will replace him when/if he can't play... and if I have to pick between Willie Harris and Lucas Duda-Where's-My-Car, I'd just as soon get "Teenage Hitting Machine" and perennially-injured Fernando Martinez up to the majors. We'll have to monitor how this drama progresses throughout Spring Training, but letting Beltran DH up until the week before Opening Day will not be enough preparation. Another question mark.

Hello, Chris Young. I was going to post something about Oliver Perez, but since he's making the move to the bullpen for two outings and then will likely get cut, I'm not going to waste the space. This post is getting rather long-winded for an introduction, so I'll just end it here with Mr. Young and the starting pitchers. Everyone's saying that poor pitching will be the Mets' achilles heel, but I've been watching the likely starters of the staff (Pelfrey, Dickey, Niese, Young, and Chris Capuano), and they all seem to be preparing themselves well for the road ahead. The big question is whether Young and Capuano can stay healthy, but I'm pretty optimistic. I think that, with these gentlemen rounding out the order, the Mets will be a more balanced team this year, and I think that they'll definitely defy expectations and finish over .500.

The actual W-L record will depend on a multitude of factors, like whether players can stay healthy, whether certain players (Pelf, Dickey, Pagan) can repeat their 2010 successes, whether Reyes goes berserk in a contract year, whether Wright can stay consistent, whether Bay lives up to his contract... The list goes on and on. I'm just thankful that I survived the winter and could write this first Mets-based post for the blog in the heat of ST and with April fast approaching, and even if it's sort of meandering and lacks any new insight, I hope that our new readers stick around as we wind up the blog and start to post regularly. It's going to be a long, awesome season.

"He doesn't look a thing like Jesus..."

You could plug in all sorts of captions for the below picture as Cashman looks fondly (maybe too fondly) at the top Yankees prospect Jesus Montero, the heir apparent to Jorge Posada:

• Is he ready to take the reins? It would sure help the team's average age if he's on the roster...
• How much can I inflate his trade value? Better yet, which GM is gonna take the bait when I've exhausted his best seasons and all that's left is a mediocre DH?
• Hank's right, he's definitely fatter than Russell Martin up close...
• Mmm Jesus... big and beautiful!

At 6' 4'' and 225 lbs, Jesus may not have the ideal catcher figure to endure two decades behind the plate, but such an issue hasn't hindered the comparable Joe Mauer's offensive or defensive ability. Albeit a small sample size, Jesus' minor league stats show promise, notably the steady growth of walks and OPS (the lack of stolen bases shouldn't come as a surprise). As mentioned in an article on the Yankees site today, his skills behind the plate are also coming along nicely; he's already thrown out two baserunners in Spring Training!

However, it remains to be seen if the Yankees still see their prospects as enticing trade chips or budding team leaders, an ever graver issue as Rivera, Posada, and Jeter head into their twilight seasons. Headlines have been popping up about other minor leagues who impressed at the last two spring training games. With more flexibility, I have a gut feeling that Cashman will strike a balance between trading for immediate value and reserving for the future. There is still time for these low risk-high growth projects to play out, which is the one of the few reasons why I feel bringing Russell Martin on board was a decent call by the front office. He can provide average to possibly above-avg. services while under contract until Jesus good to go. And in the meantime, if the 2011 season runs sour, it would be a good time to promote the babies (yeah I said it) and see how they handle being at the bigs.

On a final note, bonus points if you know the song reference for this post title.

The 2011 Bronx "Bombers"

Alright, I'm going to whip out some nerdiness and sabermetrics since that was my primary motive for creating this site; it shouldn't get too technical.

I'm not sure if Cashman or either of the Steinbrenners have publicized their estimates for the team's offensive production this year, but their numbers usually float around 1000 run scored anyways. Wow, that's a lot of baseballs to bash all summer long... they would have to score on average 6.17 runs per game. Given the shaky state of the rotation, the Bronx Bombers will definitely have to live up to their name if they want to retain a spot in the playoffs.

There is no right or wrong way to approximate a baseball team's offensive prowess, but I've come to rely on Bill James' "runs created" (RC) statistic. As shown below (source: the ever lovely Wikipedia), the technical version of the formula requires a comprehensive list of variables accounting for various ballplayer styles such as speed and power. I will go in depth about this formula in a future post and how it highly correlates with actual runs scored, but for now, I ask that you trust its statistical significance.

I gathered relevant data from baseball-reference.com on the Yankees' 2010 hitting roster to calculate their RC for the season. As shown in the next table, it is expected that Robbie Cano led the team with his breakout season. To further fuel Swish-mania, Nick was a quiet 3rd in offensive production with an estimated 102 RC. How did he beat A-Rod? Racking up a higher total base count and batting average. Sure, A-Rod had more HRs and RBIs, but his latter stat definitely benefited from his order in the line-up. Keep padding those stats, bud.

Anyways, back to the numbers. As a whole, the 2010 Yankees were projected to create 843 runs, which is pretty darn close to their actual count of 859. We also included the offensive contributions of players who had limited playing time such as Thames and Berkman. The difference could be due to situational hitting, etc., but again, we'll save that discussion for a rainy day.

I next compiled each players' average RC per season; I omitted any seasons with fewer than 150 at-bats since the data relies on too small of a sample size. It becomes obvious that Jeter, Tex, and A-Rod had down years compared to their usual production.

To add a qualitative element to this analysis, I gave each player my subjective rating (1-5, low to high) on how they would perform in 2011 relative to my calculated data. I then applied this rating as a multiplier (1 = 0.6, 2 = 0.8, 3 = 1, etc.) to their average seasonal production. Below is a brief rationale for each of my ratings:

• Jeter - Negative outlook, it's not going to get any easier for him to endure the daily grind, and he has set a high benchmark for himself with an average 106 RC per season. Not to mention any lingering grudge with the front office and the new contract.

• Granderson - He should have a good year having settled into Yankees Stadium and eyeing that short porch in right field. Just have to make sure he and Kevin Long have cured his demons to hit left-handed pitching.

• Teixeira - Tex suffered a particularly awful spring last year, but I think he'll bounce back with his usual numbers.

• A-Rod - Every now and then, A-Rod needs to prove to himself and the world that he's still on top. His past two seasons have been sub-par by his standards, and with his hip in full swing, I expect him to have a big healthy season. And he also tends to turn it on when his team's season goes sour, which could happen.

• Cano - Robbie should contribute at least 100 RC after his breakout season: his plate discipline will continue to improve and he'll get some fine opportunities behind a fully functioning A-Rod.

• Swisher - Can't get enough of this guy, he should have another fine year if he stays healthy and regularly plays the outfield, which may get crowded with Andruw Jones joining the fray.

• Brett Gardner - As mentioned above, I think Andruw Jones joining the team may have more impact upon Gardy's playing time than Swisher's. He may be delegated back into a role of pinch speed and defense with below-average contribution at the plate.

• Russell Martin - I'm sorry, I don't think the Yankees made a smart acquisition here. Martin seems like a typical bounceback candidate, but he has gotten fatter over the years (and hence can't steal like he used) and will deteriorate faster than others as a catcher. It will hard for him to come back to his seasonal averages; I'm gonna wait for Jesus Montero, sorry bro.

• Andruw Jones - A more certain wild card than Mr. Martin. Andruw showed sparks of resurgence last year with a lot of bombs in a relatively small size of at-bats. He's an improved version of the role that Marcus Thames played last year. As indicated in the table, I did have to cut his RC in half given uncertain playing time. Playtime can get tight unless Jones really justifies being out there.

• Other players - The individual efforts of Kearns, Cervelli, and Pena will fluctuate based on playing time, but their overall contribution sounds about right at <>

With their powers combined (what's the reference?), the Yankees should have a better year offensively with ~930 runs created! Is that number too high? Not necessarily.... they have surpassed this mark twice in the past 2 decades with 968 in 2007 and 965 in 1998. With only one pitcher truly locked down in their rotation, it would be a swell time to do it again.

Hitting Leadoff

Welcome to Double Play! You have somehow come across our blog, so here's the scoop. Co-author Gio and I are big fans of baseball, particularly of the New York variety (Mets and Yankees, respectively). This year, we decided to start this site as part of getting ourselves excited for the upcoming season. We will cover a variety of topics such as sabermetric analyses, player/team stories, or conventional rants on how so-and-so player is just downright awful for a fantasy baseball team (Yeah, I'm looking at you AJ). Oh, and the occasional hilarious headline on how K-Rod beat up another in-law. Anger management much?

Needless to say, we do not plan on focusing exclusively on the Yanks or Mets; there's too many other ballplayers out there to berate and/or praise. As a heads-up, our entries may not always be squeaky clean, but hey, it's a free country. I will also apologize in advance for any jokes that fall flat on my face, I'm new to this "humor" thing. Hopefully it's funnier than this...


or this...



aaaand definitely this.



Okay, the visitor count has probably gone negative at this point (If you don't know who the above pitcher is, it's just better not to ask).

So whether you are a hopeless Mets fan, a rider on the Yankees bandwagon, or just an overall fan of the sport, we hope our blog can contribute in some way to your love of the game. Thanks for reading!