Prognostications

With a sound win over the Florida Marlins today, the too-long first chapter (prologue?) of the 2011 Mets' season draws to a close, and we New York baseball fans can finally prepare ourselves for real, meaningful baseball and all of the celebration that comes along with tomorrow's (pre-April!) Opening Day. We've trudged through a dark off-season and endured weeks of meaningless exhibition games and off-the-field drama, but the season is here and I couldn't be happier. That also means that this blog of ours will begin to take some shape, with more frequent updates from me (on the Mets) and Cha (on the Yankees), whether in the form of post-game commentary, more numbers-driven analysis and insight, or heated opinion pieces. We hope you'll stick around and contribute in the comments section, or link to us, or simply enjoy the content. We're going to work to make the blog something unique and worthy of bookmarking.

I covered some of the Mets' Spring Training storylines in a prior post, and much of that drama has been resolved in recent days. Luis Castillo was cut from the Mets, signed by the Phillies, and then cut by the Phillies, and in the meantime, Brad Emaus has been named the starting second baseman and has gone on a hitting tear (.306 AVG in 23 games, OBP of .414, and a clutch HR). Carlos Beltran is back in right field and continues to hit the cover off of the ball while making all of us nervous on the basepaths and in the field, but he's making sliding catches and is a valuable asset in the lineup. Chris Young and Chris Capuano have been rock-solid in the rotation, rounding out the starting lineup and the team's biggest concern (Young has a 1.33 ERA in five games; Capuano's is 1.93). The team let Ollie Perez go, so we know that the new front office is smart enough to drop dead weight and has all eyes toward the future. Bernie Madoff is still behind bars. All in all, the Mets' Spring Training has wrapped up beautifully.

The one concern, since there always has to be one, is the status of left fielder Jason Bay, who suddenly feels tension in his chest and has gone to New York to be examined by team doctors. More doom and gloom for the Mets, proclaim the naysayers, but is losing Bay for a few weeks really as bad as, say, losing Beltran would be? Bay was batting .333 in Spring Training, sure, but with two doubles, no HRs, and five RBI... while Duda hit two HRs, walked more (7), and hit more doubles (4). The sample size is quite small, so perhaps it would be better to look at their stats from last year. After all, Duda did play 29 games for the Mets at the end of 2010.

In those 29 games, after starting 1-for-34, Duda hit .320 with 4 HRs in 50 at-bats (per ESPN). In the minor leagues, for the 70 games prior to his emergency call-up, he hit .314 with 17 HRs, 53 RBI, and an OPS of .999. Granted, it's the minor leagues, but it's still solid.

Now let's look at Bay. He had an uncharacteristically bad year, to be sure, but his AVG of .259 isn't that far from his 2009 AVG of .267 with the Red Sox. He's a 20-30 HR hitter, but he only hit six last year, which could be a product of Citi Field. Still, you don't need to hit HRs to produce, and he only gave the team 47 RBI, so that's worrying. Is the team better off with a consistent hitter like J-Bay in the lineup? Of course they are. Is it the end of the Mets' season if he has to miss some time? Hardly! The batting lineup, from Reyes to Pagan to Wright to Beltran to Ike to Thole and on through the bench hitters, even including Emaus at 2B, is potent and full of both speed and power. Between Duda, Willie Harris, and Scott Hairston, the latter two of whom have been absolutely crushing the ball in Spring Training and the former with all of his potential pop, can fill in admirably until Bay is ready.

Of course, if you listen to Sports Illustrated or any number of publications, the Mets shouldn't even bother playing this season. SI picks them to finish dead last in the NL East, the analysts on MLB Network pick them to finish fourth, and ESPN's Jayson Stark lumps them together with the Pirates, the Indians, and the Diamondbacks as the also-rans who should just stay home. In my opinion, the problem here is one of perception; these sports writers see all of the off-the-field drama and all of this past off-season's question marks, and they tally everything up and decide that the Mets will be a losing team. These guys predict 90 wins for the Phillies and respectable numbers for the Braves and Marlins, which is absolutely fine, but don't even mention the strength of the division as a reason for predicting the Mets going down in a streak of blue-and-orange flames. Instead, they point out the number of "question marks" that the Mets have - are these guys paying any attention to Spring Training? Spring performances aren't necessarily indicative of what we can expect during the regular season, especially since everyday players only play a few innings and pitchers are working on their stuff more than trying to win games, but the so-called "question marks" are being filled in every week. Young and Capuano are healthy, and the front-three starters look good and have positive track records. The Mets have, I believe, 35 HRs this spring, compared to the Marlins' 11. Their bench and bullpen are light years better than what they've had in the past few years, and Sports Illustrated picked the Mets to win the World Series just two years ago.

This team isn't that different, and has a higher ceiling, but nobody wants to talk about anything other than finances and health concerns. Admittedly, those two things can tear this team down, but from where I'm sitting, there's a sun shining behind the clouds that new GM Sandy Alderson is trying so hard to clear away. Maybe I'm delusional, but I don't see why the 2011 Mets can't at least compete for the Wild Card. They finished the Grapefruit League season in sixth place, while the Red Sox have gone 1-11 in their last 12 games, 13-19 on the spring as I write this, and the Sox-loving writers haven't flinched. Sure, Spring Training is meaningless, but I'm hoping that the Mets can surprise some people in 2011. It wouldn't be the first time.