A Fresh Start

With all of the success that New York-area sports teams are having these days (Jets, Knicks, Rangers, St. John's, Big East teams in general, Red Bulls all making playoff/tournament runs), one might assume that we NY baseball fans would be justified in keeping baseball off of our minds until Opening Day and the official start of the 2011 season. Not so, kind readers. In fact, with Spring Training games now being televised daily and in the era of the twenty-four hour news cycle, we're already in the thick of the statistics, the predictions, the scrutiny... Hell, players are even coming up with mystery ailments (I'm looking at you, Carlos Beltran, with the sudden tendonitis in your non-surgical knee) and are already throwing themselves headfirst at the DL. If you're the Wilpon family, you're embroiled in heated legal proceedings. If you're Miguel Cabrera, you're handcuffed in the back of a police cruiser, singing, "Hermano, hermanooo, oyeee!" at a cop who finally gives in and tells you, "No hablo espanol." In short, the season's heating up before it has even started, and for the Mets and Yankees, our two favorite teams, that's good news. An exciting March will take our minds off of our ho-hum, quiet off-seasons, and these first few weeks of games have presented a slew of issues. As the resident Mets blogger, I'll tackle some pressing Mets issues, as Cha, the resident Yankee blogger, already analyzed the Yankee lineup with some very useful analysis on runs-created and the impact of certain players in the lineup. My Mets analysis today will be pretty much void of statistics, because the Mets don't produce numbers. They just produce headlines. Let's dive in.

The obvious first stop on our trail of terror through Mets camp and the current issues facing the team is with the Wilpons, who continue to swear ("No, we're serious!") that their off-field financial troubles, stemming from the ponzi scheme of longtime former friend Bernie Madoff, won't affect the day-to-day operations of the Mets. Theorize all you want; we'll never know if financial constraints kept new GM Sandy Alderson from offering any big deals this past off-season, but I tend to believe him when he says that he's waiting for huge money to come off the books so that he can really shape the new direction of this team in one fell swoop. The bigger question, I think, is whether the Wilpons are willing to eat the salaries of Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo, two members of this team that, in all likelihood, will not be on the roster come Opening Day... though I think that Castillo still has a shot. This brings us to...

Luis himself. Bloated contract, sub-par fielder (and fading fast), terrible hitter, and apparently very frustrated that he has to compete in Spring Training with Daniel Murphy and Rule 5 pick Brad Emaus for the 2B job. Well, Luis, the new GM and his cadre of assistants expect results from their players, so if you care about this team, you should be happy that they want the right man for the job. Unfortunately, that's probably not you. Maybe you shouldn't admit that the Yankee pop-up from forever-ago still weighs heavily on you and makes you nervous in the field? You know that Yankee fans have to hear that and just eat it up. For the record, here are the stats of the three competing 2Bs:

Luis Castillo (the incumbent) - 3/14, 1 R, 1 RBI, 2 BB, .214 AVG, .313 OBP.

Daniel Murphy (the challenger) - 7/24, 4 doubles, 6 RBI, 1 BB, .292 AVG, .320 OBP.
--Looking pretty good, but the biggest obstacle facing Murph is that his defense isn't wonderful. He can also play other infield positions, which means that he might be better suited for a bench role. He's such a hard worker, though!

Brad Emaus (the baby) - 2/12, 0 RBI, 2 BB, .167 AVG, .500 OPS.
--Those numbers are pretty terrible, but Emaus has a few things working in his favor. For one, he's a Rule 5 pick, so the Mets will have to put him on the major league roster if they want to keep him, and the scouts say that he has some real potential as a 2B. Note that he has half as many at-bats as Murphy, so he could still pick it up... and he's batting third against the Marlins today.

It's still early in ST, so these numbers aren't even worth much, but you can see just how diverse the field is among these three players. Let's move on.

Another reason that the Mets are going to have to make some difficult roster decisions is that this guy right here, Carlos Beltran, is oscillating daily between, "Oh, I feel great! Let's play hopscotch!" and, "Ooooh, I can't feel my legs! Maybe I should just sit out for the next two weeks... I'll still maybe, kinda, sorta be prepared for Opening Day! Right, Mr. Boras? Is that what you wanted me to say?" I don't see how big ol' Beltran will play over a hundred games this season, especially if he has separate problems in both knees, and while I commend him for offering to move over to RF, I don't want the team to suffer because one of their "superstars" can't get to half of the balls hit to the acre of land in Citi Field's right field. I hope he proves me wrong, but the concern is who will replace him when/if he can't play... and if I have to pick between Willie Harris and Lucas Duda-Where's-My-Car, I'd just as soon get "Teenage Hitting Machine" and perennially-injured Fernando Martinez up to the majors. We'll have to monitor how this drama progresses throughout Spring Training, but letting Beltran DH up until the week before Opening Day will not be enough preparation. Another question mark.

Hello, Chris Young. I was going to post something about Oliver Perez, but since he's making the move to the bullpen for two outings and then will likely get cut, I'm not going to waste the space. This post is getting rather long-winded for an introduction, so I'll just end it here with Mr. Young and the starting pitchers. Everyone's saying that poor pitching will be the Mets' achilles heel, but I've been watching the likely starters of the staff (Pelfrey, Dickey, Niese, Young, and Chris Capuano), and they all seem to be preparing themselves well for the road ahead. The big question is whether Young and Capuano can stay healthy, but I'm pretty optimistic. I think that, with these gentlemen rounding out the order, the Mets will be a more balanced team this year, and I think that they'll definitely defy expectations and finish over .500.

The actual W-L record will depend on a multitude of factors, like whether players can stay healthy, whether certain players (Pelf, Dickey, Pagan) can repeat their 2010 successes, whether Reyes goes berserk in a contract year, whether Wright can stay consistent, whether Bay lives up to his contract... The list goes on and on. I'm just thankful that I survived the winter and could write this first Mets-based post for the blog in the heat of ST and with April fast approaching, and even if it's sort of meandering and lacks any new insight, I hope that our new readers stick around as we wind up the blog and start to post regularly. It's going to be a long, awesome season.