Wednesday, March 23, 2011

"I'd rather be lucky than good."


TCB. Typical closer behavior. I don't know where these guys get their attitude, but Rafael Soriano has had more than his fair share of star treatment since joining the Yankees. He has a so-called rule to not face any opposing hitters from the same division during spring training. It even got to the point recently where he pitched in a minor league game to potentially avoid revealing his black box of tricks and slurves. Well, it might not be magic, but lady luck seems to be on Mr. Soriano's side.

I'll concede that his top line stats (from baseball-reference.com) are impressive: over the past two seasons, he has been effective with a sub-3.00 ERA, efficient with a sub-1.00 WHIP, and clutch with 20+ saves seasons. Opposing hitters couldn't get much wood on the ball with a 0.163 BA and 0.6 HR/9 innings last season. At the same time, look at his 0.199 batting average per balls in play (BABIP) in 2011. His career BABIP is an astounding 0.243, 50 basis points lower than the MLB average of 0.298. I'm not sure about how the 2009 Braves infielders rated in defense, but the equivalent Rays players in 2010 probably pushed the above stats in Soriano's favor.

I will reserve full judgment until he goes out on the mound this season and hopefully shuts down any hopes for the opponent team to win before Mariano comes out, but one of these days... his production will likely suffer from mean reversion. That said, Soriano could strike the same BABIP rate with three potential Gold Gloves holding down the infield (sorry Jeter).

In either case, he's made his choice to be a defiant Yankee, especially after making a comment this week about how he doesn't "have to change anything" after coming to New York. The guy's got enough steam to match his bloated contract... what team does that? An player opt-out option in each year of his contract? No wonder Soriano feels like he owns the place. Unfortunately, that may be the only way free agents would be willing to sign with the Yanks these days. Try to cash in on a bigger contract or pocket the insurance, rain or shine.

A bit of the above is media re-hash, so I'll leave you with something original - this guy's attitude steenks and it's gonna be a long time before he comes close to Mariano Rivera's prestige.

1 comment:

  1. Really solid observations. We'll have to wait for the regular season to see how he performs, and I'm in the minority because I really like the idea of having a persistent eighth-inning setup man, but it is interesting to compare his Spring Training demands and Mariano's nonchalant confidence. Let's hope that he can perform as well in the eighth inning, and not turn into the next J.J. Putz!

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